Allow me to propose a modest alternative to space data centers, namely mountaintop data centers. This would consist of a container full of servers and GPUs and what else goes into a data center, a wind turbine for power and a communication module (say laser or microwave) for communicating with a base station with a fiber connection. This would be lifted on top of a mountain by a helicopter and bolted in place. Cooling would be provided by heat sinks exposed to the outside air. Some of the nodes could relay traffic from other nodes on remote mountain tops out of sight of the base station.
This scheme has many advantages over space data centers including launch costs, cooling, connection latency, servicability and ease of recycling.
Space data centers are physically possible but don't make financial sense. The total cost of an orbital datacenter over five years is at least 2–3x that of a terrestrial one.
But those economics don't matter to SpaceX, because the main purpose of its orbital data centers is to create a use case for Starship. Starship has to fly frequently to iron out the kinks, encounter and fix rare (1/1000) failure situations, and optimize the launch cadence which pushes launch costs down. Plus Starship needs to fly a lot before it's ready for crewed flight. The long-term goal is a Starship optimized for crewed interplanetary travel. Orbital data centers are a payload that bring in some revenue, and provide a reason to launch constantly.
It's the same thing they did with Starlink to make Falcon 9 as reliable and rapidly reusable as it is.
2-3x sounds like a very low estimate.
There’s so much data center capacity being built all over the Earth. Thousands of large projects across US / China / Europe / Middle East. It would be astonishing if something that’s never been done before could be so cost-competitive immediately.
Starlink wasn’t the first time LEO communications constellations were attempted. Multiple 1990s projects did it (Iridium, GlobalStar…) and went bankrupt.
It took 30 years to make the concept work. SpaceX investors seem to be assuming the space data center business will be immediately viable.
SemiAnalysis' report on orbital data centers estimated 4x terrestrial costs in 2026, then parity around ~2040.
Based on very specific assumptions: “…the world in which AI demand is so overwhelming as to exceed the already formidable datacenter capacity additions” — but also this same world is one where GPU chip supply is abundant, there just isn’t enough data centers to put them in.
This does not seem like the likeliest scenario to me.
My guess is: it just sounds cool.
Like the cybertruck
What I don't understand about building a space data center is that you need radiators to release heat. Otherwise, it will become a space thermos. What's even more incomprehensible is that you would need specialized equipment for space radiation, and GPUs are consumables. To make that profitable, you would need pricing that is many times higher than the cost of a regular data center. I don't understand why there are people who actually fall for this. If I say this, people will call me someone who mocks others' challenges, but it seems like they're saying physical problems can be overcome too easily.
I have the feeling that the only reason that might actually be done is to escape from any kind of jurisdiction. In space no one can hear you compute.
If that's the case, wouldn't it be better to just put it in the desert? Realistically, if noise from calculations is the problem, placing it in a remote area would be more economical.
Whyyyy are we not building distributed data centers under driveways? I want one under my driveway to melt the snow. It can use my power and water hookups if it pays for them.
I still don’t see what the advantage is. Of course it’s physically possible to build a datacenter in space, but I can’t imagine land prices being that high that the same data center on earth wouldn’t be cheaper. Even just due to launch costs and the more sophisticated equipment needed for space.
I doubt it'll make sense any time soon, but some arguments I can think of are that solar in space can easily be ~50% more efficient at any moment while also being continuous (enough) in the right orbit.
An even more radical idea is to put nuclear in space which would sidestep all the earthly hurdles (beyond the launch).
The real issue is that the power situation in LEO is still actually terrible! Your solar is a little more performant, but you're plunged into hard shade every 45 minutes.
I think calling solar a little more performant is underselling it. Once you have LEO getting to a better orbit costs relatively little. Getting from LEO to the moon is only like 30% more than getting from ground to LEO.
Seems reasonable that the area needed would be less than the solar panels. Since it sould be more efficient to dump heat than collect energy from light.
I think it's a vary valid option to launch swarms of datacenters into space. I think a few decades to a hundred years from now, it will be the norm. Until then, we can find plany of land to do it. Instead a launch, you just need a battery. Much cheaper. All the rest stays the same.
This isn't terribly practical. Yes, we can deal with heat. The trouble is cost, and dealing with high energy radiation both flipping bits and corrupting the silicon.
Allow me to propose a modest alternative to space data centers, namely mountaintop data centers. This would consist of a container full of servers and GPUs and what else goes into a data center, a wind turbine for power and a communication module (say laser or microwave) for communicating with a base station with a fiber connection. This would be lifted on top of a mountain by a helicopter and bolted in place. Cooling would be provided by heat sinks exposed to the outside air. Some of the nodes could relay traffic from other nodes on remote mountain tops out of sight of the base station.
This scheme has many advantages over space data centers including launch costs, cooling, connection latency, servicability and ease of recycling.
Space data centers are physically possible but don't make financial sense. The total cost of an orbital datacenter over five years is at least 2–3x that of a terrestrial one.
But those economics don't matter to SpaceX, because the main purpose of its orbital data centers is to create a use case for Starship. Starship has to fly frequently to iron out the kinks, encounter and fix rare (1/1000) failure situations, and optimize the launch cadence which pushes launch costs down. Plus Starship needs to fly a lot before it's ready for crewed flight. The long-term goal is a Starship optimized for crewed interplanetary travel. Orbital data centers are a payload that bring in some revenue, and provide a reason to launch constantly.
It's the same thing they did with Starlink to make Falcon 9 as reliable and rapidly reusable as it is.
2-3x sounds like a very low estimate.
There’s so much data center capacity being built all over the Earth. Thousands of large projects across US / China / Europe / Middle East. It would be astonishing if something that’s never been done before could be so cost-competitive immediately.
Starlink wasn’t the first time LEO communications constellations were attempted. Multiple 1990s projects did it (Iridium, GlobalStar…) and went bankrupt.
It took 30 years to make the concept work. SpaceX investors seem to be assuming the space data center business will be immediately viable.
SemiAnalysis' report on orbital data centers estimated 4x terrestrial costs in 2026, then parity around ~2040.
https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/to-boldly-go-the-case-...
Based on very specific assumptions: “…the world in which AI demand is so overwhelming as to exceed the already formidable datacenter capacity additions” — but also this same world is one where GPU chip supply is abundant, there just isn’t enough data centers to put them in.
This does not seem like the likeliest scenario to me.
My guess is: it just sounds cool.
Like the cybertruck
What I don't understand about building a space data center is that you need radiators to release heat. Otherwise, it will become a space thermos. What's even more incomprehensible is that you would need specialized equipment for space radiation, and GPUs are consumables. To make that profitable, you would need pricing that is many times higher than the cost of a regular data center. I don't understand why there are people who actually fall for this. If I say this, people will call me someone who mocks others' challenges, but it seems like they're saying physical problems can be overcome too easily.
I have the feeling that the only reason that might actually be done is to escape from any kind of jurisdiction. In space no one can hear you compute.
If that's the case, wouldn't it be better to just put it in the desert? Realistically, if noise from calculations is the problem, placing it in a remote area would be more economical.
Whyyyy are we not building distributed data centers under driveways? I want one under my driveway to melt the snow. It can use my power and water hookups if it pays for them.
I still don’t see what the advantage is. Of course it’s physically possible to build a datacenter in space, but I can’t imagine land prices being that high that the same data center on earth wouldn’t be cheaper. Even just due to launch costs and the more sophisticated equipment needed for space.
I doubt it'll make sense any time soon, but some arguments I can think of are that solar in space can easily be ~50% more efficient at any moment while also being continuous (enough) in the right orbit.
An even more radical idea is to put nuclear in space which would sidestep all the earthly hurdles (beyond the launch).
The real issue is that the power situation in LEO is still actually terrible! Your solar is a little more performant, but you're plunged into hard shade every 45 minutes.
I think calling solar a little more performant is underselling it. Once you have LEO getting to a better orbit costs relatively little. Getting from LEO to the moon is only like 30% more than getting from ground to LEO.
Seems reasonable that the area needed would be less than the solar panels. Since it sould be more efficient to dump heat than collect energy from light.
I think it's a vary valid option to launch swarms of datacenters into space. I think a few decades to a hundred years from now, it will be the norm. Until then, we can find plany of land to do it. Instead a launch, you just need a battery. Much cheaper. All the rest stays the same.
This isn't terribly practical. Yes, we can deal with heat. The trouble is cost, and dealing with high energy radiation both flipping bits and corrupting the silicon.
I'll add another to the list of relevant links in the comments: https://spectrum.ieee.org/orbital-data-centers-heat
See also https://andrewmccalip.com/space-datacenters with some models and numbers you can play with.
See also:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlQYU3m1e80
And also: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JAcR7kqOb3o
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